New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be cast, More posts from the SelfDrivingCars community. Birthed in the moonshot seeking unit of Alphabet owned Google — Google X, this was the wacky … I'm thinking about joining them. L3 like Tesla is aiming for is a huge benefit as long as everyone needs to own and drive cars. If they can work out a recovery system where they simply take a different route for unprotected lefts, they can have that problem 1 in 5 trips and I think they could go to market. I'm completely bullish on self-driving, but it seems to me like Tesla's approach might be absolutely genius. Today they are. That is the path of least resistance economically. I just want to say that I'm completely bullish on self-driving, but it seems to me like Tesla's approach might be absolutely genius. I guess Tesla could go for L4 but they would need to start up a very expensive mapping operation and I don't think their margins will allow for that. If Tesla can knock it out of the park and provide a ton of value at L3, I think the mass adoption of those vehicles and the data collected from them, would allow them to accelerate even quicker to L5 or somewhere close. not staged or controlled). The downside is they have to basically qualify every inch of every road the car drives on. Google/Waymo concluded early on that selling even a PORTION of their advanced technology to the automakers would lead inevitably to tragic accidents that will set back the greater effort immensely. Tesla agrees with me—they reported 0 miles of on-road testing in California in 2018. ... Reddit; At Tesla Autonomy Day, ... Waymo’s … Sure. Would be great to have a Tesla FSD beta car trail a Waymo car to get a true comparison. Waymo vs Tesla self driving cars. All very fair points! driving. Most of the times Waymo needs to be taken over aren't life critical situations, but times when they get stuck. No, there is nothing that points toward needing communication between cars to achieve FSD. As the ability to get self driving to 90% effectiveness becomes commodified and shared across multiple SDC companies, it seems like Tesla should be able to achieve this soon. What a ludicrous statement. There is no guarantee that either approaches will achieve full self driving. It just seems like having the driver act as the safety driver is the only way to go for the foreseeable future and will let Tesla get ahead. I don't think Waymo needs to be 100%, they just need to get to 1 in 2k or 5k trips without an event where you have to exit the car or wait a very long time to continue your trip. Previously Autopilot had three tiers: 1. Depends on the team but overall Waymo moves quite slow now as an old company. Message me on Reddit: /u/DirtyTesla Twitter: @DirtyTesla ... Tesla VS Waymo - Who Will Win the ... $7,000 Tesla Autopilot vs $1,000 Openpilot: Self-Driving Test! Like any data-based product, the more it’s used, the better it gets. I think they will get there but a few months is beyond ridiculous. General. At the time, Waymo said it could lower the unit price from $75,000 for … I think you are being generous. These companies are in different markets, and I cannot think of any market overlap. A small snippet of the book focuses on the rather tragic accident wherein a Tesla driver was killed driving into the SIDE of a tractor-trailer. Similarly, for the longer trips, I don’t mind driving myself to the onramp, and then driving again once I get to the offramp at my destination. is similar to traditional radar in that it uses pulses of electromagnetic radiation to detect nearby objects Excellent way to think of reliability. Cheap commercial L4 will change the world as we know it. To clarify, that means over a … I’ve experienced a SDC (not Tesla) at ~99.9% reliability and if you are a passenger and you realize that regardless of the number of nines you realize that any screwups cause you to loose all trust. Like most cities, this area has constant road construction and here, its year round due to the sunny weather. Waymo's clarification is completely irrelevant to that route it took because it ended up going down the exact same road anyways. They have a very marketable product that people are willing to spend $8k for and it works. You might be misunderstanding options. 5G isn't needed by anything. ...50 rides. That should be a 1 in 2k to 5k trips event. They will be at 98% reliability for 95% of the time. See r/TeslaLounge for laid back discussion, personal experiences, and more photos! But freeways would be pretty good for me, and it seems like it’s an easier milestone to achieve. Level 4 full autonomy is a game changer. This guy has a few other Waymo videos on his channel as well. As a driver, even if you need to take over your car once every trip, that's not really much of a bother, and it adds immense value. This guy has a few other Waymo videos on his channel as well. Functionality may be similar, but reliability is not even comparable. For example GPS is often said to be accurate to +/-3m when in reality this means nothing. Zoox Cruise Waymo. WAYMO service map: https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/waymo-coverage-map.png, Approx. Just a thought. It is a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc, the parent company of Google.Waymo operates a commercial self-driving taxi service that operates in the greater Phoenix, Arizona area called "Waymo One", with Chandler, Arizona fully mapped. Its a money-making product. 2. LOG IN or ... Another issue with Tesla is the industry technology being obsolete by the time Tesla is ready to ‘turn on’ FSD. The internet can be weird sometimes. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts, https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/waymo-coverage-map.png. I'm not suggesting any of the ideas in this post are groundbreaking, but I want to hear people's thoughts. Ford, Volvo, GM, Waymo, TuSimple. Thoughts on Tesla vs. Waymo I'm not suggesting any of the ideas in this post are groundbreaking, but I want to hear people's thoughts. The vast majority of the WAYMO cars I see are still having safety drivers. It is the automated planning and strategy. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. I was on team Altavista, my friend was on team Yahoo and we both looked down on Lycos. Navigant Research believes GM Cruise, Waymo and Ford are pulling ahead in autonomous drive while Tesla lags behind almost every competitor. V2X only comes in if you want to start optimizing things. Note, I believe Waymo is restricted to a certain area in Arizona. News and discussion about self-driving cars. What will dominate web searches? "Absolutely" is about a firm a sign I can give that I agreed with your statement. The original and largest Tesla community on Reddit! Waymo LLC is an American autonomous driving technology development company. Both approaches are currently providing real world value so let’s appreciate it. The Tesla CEO called Waymo’s tech ‘ fragile ‘ pointing to the fact that the Waymo Driver system only works in a 50 square-mile area in Arizona that has been previously mapped. Until we can achieve L5, this is the only known way to achieve that. If this is the case, then Its a bonus on vision based FSD over Lidar and maps. Let's say it will take Tesla 2 years to get there. If its a 5% of trips need intervention, how long ago was it 50% of trips needed intervention? Watch the video below. By Sahil Gupta | Updated: 13-Nov-20 03:34 PM IST 0 Views Waymo is no spring chicken. Agreed! It is a good market fit for sure. Now all we need is someone with the FSD beta to drive to Chandler, Arizona and take the exact same trip! The largest (and original) Tesla community on Reddit! I can easily see FSD far surpassing this level of driving in a couple months, if not in a couple weeks depending on the rate of progess. But I don't believe Tesla will get there. Today most of the situations reported are unprotected left turns but you have to assume there other more problematic and rare situations. EDIT - I realize that I have completely failed to mention that I am referring to capability of the systems here, and not reliability. Nothing monumentally ground breaking about that rate of progress. See r/TeslaLounge for laid back discussion, and more photos! Tesla (formerly Tesla Motors) is a tech company based in Palo Alto, California with a mission to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. Thoughts? It’s only the shortest trips for me that only involve surface streets, and for those, I don’t mind driving myself. The video is just of Waymo's system, but it is done by regular users of the system in Arizona (e.g. The real company was Google. Point is, we don’t know yet. As others have pointed out, they service a _VERY_ small area in a Phoenix suburb. Waymo began manufacturing its own cheaper LIDAR sensors in 2011. This is different from Tesla which does not have restrictions on areas with their beta program, but Tesla has drivers. There are random events that occur that will take a long time to build into the algos. Waymo vs. Uber trial date postponed to December Alphabet sought the later date to absorb recently unsealed documents By Andrew J. Hawkins @andyjayhawk Oct 3, 2017, 3:57pm EDT Or in the mid 2000s, what cell phone will be the best, Nokia or Blackberry? They will be at 98% reliability for 95% of the time... which means it replaces the driver for 0% of the time. Tesla, INCLUDING Elon Musk blamed the driver and immediately retreated to say they should have been attentive and the system was not intended to be used in the way the driver was clearly tempted to use it. That is still too unreliable to be a fully self driving taxi service with no safety driver. Feels like a click bait when there is no actual side by side comparison. I'm fine with an extra 2 minutes on a trip. Was there a factor of 10 improvement in 2 years? Something we never heard of at this point. Press J to jump to the feed. They are FSD today even though it isn't good enough to be marketable. Clearly Waymo and others are having immense trouble with that last 0.01% of scenarios where a safety driver has to take over. Uber was racking up millions of test miles … I think I disagree with the separate markets idea though. Despite Tesla's recent Autopilot fatality, this study shows that people still trust its self-driving system above others. I live in the Phoenix area where WAYMO is operating (Chandler AZ). My point in all of this is that you’re right that Waymo and Tesla are not competing today. FSD may require a communication protocol between vehicles and that communication protocol may require 5G speeds. comments. Most engineering ratings are done this way and I wish it would bubble up to how society thinks in general. They have been driving these roads since 2016 to map them and perfect the car's SW. It was iPhone and Android. Approx. For one thing, waymo right now is able to claim liability for their cars. Driver assist is a cute toy. It just seems like having the driver act as the safety driver is the only way to go for the foreseeable future and will let Tesla get ahead. ‘Standard’ Autopilot – standard and free which included active safety like Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) 2. Would I be more interested in a feature that could drive me on surface streets as well? What I wouldn't be fine with is a trip where I had to get out and walk. And my 2019 MX handles road construction, lane diversion and unmarked lanes without an issue (so far). In April, Elon Musk declared that Tesla should have over a million level 5 autonomous vehicles manufactured by 2020. There is a massive difference in reliability between crashing every couple of hours and having no safety driver driving around all day every day taking paying customers and not getting in a single crash. Having the car drive you for 95% of the time would be incredible for most people. There are 5 people making FSD videos for a week and there have already been interventions to prevent FSD from crashing. Lol Tesla is not comparable to these two. Maps are In the same boat, maps aren’t needed in 20 years. Once again we were wrong. From what Shawn and others have reported, I'd say it's closer to 5%. But I could see this L4 freeway feature being an area of market overlap that would have them competing directly. 3. Altavista, Lycos, or Yahoo. Waymo achieved 1 disengagement every 8000 miles 5 years ago. I think the plan that Google scrapped several years back was for an L3 feature.). Let's argue! There is no guarantee that either approaches will achieve full self driving. The automaker discontinued the model back in … That's probably quicker than it will take Waymo to get to 100%. Rarely with technology do the early players end up being the long term winners. Overall it seems to be pretty good, maybe slightly ahead of FSD Beta, but that is hard to quantitate. Timothy B. Lee - … Can. Iterate from there. How did Waymo perform in the east coast compared to the west coast? Waymo seems to drive 99.999% reliably for 95% of the time. TESLA service map: https://www.google.com/earth/. Over the last few months, Tesla … If you prioritize work life balance then maybe Waymo is better. As others have said, I think these are completely separate markets. Enhanced Autopilot – a paid option that included auto steering plus distance cruise-control, summon, autopark and Navigate-on-Autopilot. This makes me excited for the day I can lean back in my seat and watch Hulu as my car drives me places. Timothy B. Lee - Jan 17, 2018 8:32 pm UTC Let's say they manage to get it to the point where the car needs to be taken over once every 50 rides. The video is just of Waymo's system, but it is done by regular users of the system in Arizona (e.g. Even local trips/errands usually involve freeway driving. The site may not work properly if you don't, If you do not update your browser, we suggest you visit, Press J to jump to the feed. I think it would have a lot to do with how it recovers. Oh how I wish we could do this. The book Autonomy does a comprehensive job of addressing the concerns. That is still too unreliable to be a fully self driving taxi service with no safety driver. Tesla’s advantage will be billions on commuter miles and not being responsible for accidents until the technology is ready. Is it unreasonable to expect a factor of 10 improvement in the next two years? TLDW - Waymo also struggles with turns, being overcautious in certain situations, strange routing, and sudden braking. They … I am not talking about an L3 feature, nor would I be interested in one. This is because I live in the suburbs, and freeways make up the majority of my commute. It’s like getting to practice surgery on live patients while having a real surgeon standing next to you. Whereas Waymo needs to get to a 100% with expensive sensors. In a response to a tweet, Waymos official twitter handle emphatically said -yes- claiming its technology was superior than its -vocal- rivals. For those unaware, Tesla’s very first vehicle was a two-seater sports car named ‘Roadster’. 1 44. facebook twitter reddit hacker news link. A GPS that is reliable to +/-3m 98% of the time is a good GPS where one that is +/-3M 91% of the time is crap. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Beta system was caught on video impressively detecting and avoiding a deer crossing the road at night. You NEVER see a WAYMO car anywhere there is road work. Their mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. I don't know how Tesla is going to charge $100,000 for this if there's a decent competitor. Edge cases involve more than unique scenarios that needs an algorithm. Not. Interesting to see how Waymo performs relative to other FSD Beta videos! There is nothing wrong with this strategy and one of the huge benefits is that they don't have to map. Holy shit, had no idea Waymo existed or this has been so... advanced. Tesla would be out of their minds to do that any time soon. Having a direct 1:1 comparison would be exceptional. An unofficial forum of owners and enthusiasts. Would be great to have a Tesla FSD beta car trail a Waymo car to get a true comparison. It will be nice to have it when it arrives in a decade but nothing is waiting on it. They produce electric vehicles (with a heavy focus on autonomy), batteries, and energy/solar products for the grid. Waymo and Tesla are locked in a battle to reach the holy grail of full, level five autonomous driving first. That is a great example where Waymo would have to go L5 instead of driving to the data base. This is extremely random but the guy is wearing a Tally Hall shirt and I went to college with those guys. (To be clear, I’m talking about an L4 feature with an ODD of onramp to offramp. Award, which is not the day you sign your offer (if you do, lol, man, waymo offers are bad) 3. Waymo just published a blog post and paper describing how it tested imitation learning for path planning, something that Tesla has recently been reported.Waymo trained a path planning neural network to handle a few driving tasks using 1) imitation … From the Q&A from the Waymo rider they noted that human intervention was far more common when they first started riding with them. But no, they won't tell you why the unit price is $11, even if you become an employee. Whereas Waymo needs to get to a 100% with expensive sensors. not staged or controlled). Tesla vs Waymo: Why Elon Musk's Design Choice Could Win Autonomous Driving - “If you’re going to build artificial intelligence systems…camera is the way to go, because you can learn so much more... It’s a little bit more futuristic, so it’s a longer-term solution.” Everyone is solving a Different challenge. Despite the numbers, people absolutely love Tesla autopilot. The issue is not vision. As many other people have pointed out, Waymo is very very far ahead in terms of reliability. Want to comment? Or an error in their maps or software that prevented them from taking a left. Strictly comparing performance, FSD is no where near Waymo. Waymo,Cruise, Intel/Mobileye, and Tesla are the major contestants in the self-driving car race. That said, unless Tesla somehow to make it to L5 then yes, it won't change the world like L4 cars will. While Waymo does appear to be a bit smoother overall in this video, it seems like it's only ever so slightly above FSD beta. They fixed a few bugs so far that the beta drivers found. Am I missing a piece? In my Tesla, if the car brakes unexpectedly, slows, or swerves I’m much more forgiving because I know I can take over. Tesla is really trying to build an L5 car. Seems there are a lot of companies in the game. Even then there is a lot of debate to it's utility. Tesla (formerly Tesla Motors) is an energy + technology company based in Palo Alto, California. Waymo and Argo and Cruise type companies are thinking now and also 20 years from now. ; Each has developed a different business model. Wait!!!! As Uber and Tesla struggle with driverless cars, Waymo moves forward When it comes to self-driving cars, there's Waymo and then there's everyone else. I understand that you think it's two separate markets, but I think once Tesla gets to that point and gets a flywheel going, they would take over very quickly. I also travel to see family and friends ~120 miles away pretty frequently. Waymo vs. Uber: unsealed court documents reveal damning evidence Anthony Levandowski, Uber’s fired self-driving car engineer, founded his own church View all 26 stories Given that L5 is all but impossible or at the very least decades off; they are just working toward L3. So for Tesla drivers its not really much of a problem. Not sure what the "marketable" number is. 2 years ago? In February 2017, Waymo, the self-driving car company spun off by Google, filed a lawsuit against Uber, alleging the ride-hail giant stole its key technology. I am more interested in the rate of progress. Waymo, which started life as Google’s self-driving car project, has started The race is on. Hopefully in the next couple months as more people get access to the FSD beta! I can see going from 1 in 20 rides needs an intervention to 1 in 200 to eventually 1 in 2000 and 1 in 20,000. Considering Tesla is trying to do everything in that manner is just not practical. Can it drive at 99.999% reliability for 95% of the time? Full Self-Driving which was a prepaid option and supposed to be fully autonomous Level 5 (what do Levels mean?) Waymo is way more google-like in terms of culture. Looks like you're using new Reddit on an old browser. Maybe it wasnt confident enough to change multiple lanes and make a left. At Tesla Autonomy Day, Elon Musk and other executives explained the company's self-driving plans. Whom do you think is ahead in terms of Self driving technology? "Having the car drive you for 95% of the time would be incredible for most people.". Personally, I think their approach of having to HD map the area where they drive is not easily scaled up. This reminds me of a conversation I used to have with my nerdy friends in high school 20 years ago. Waymo has built an L4 car that can drive without you paying attention. That is pretty far along. Waymo, Alphabet's self-driving car company, was testing fully driverless cars and preparing for a commercial launch in the Phoenix area. This is huge. Agreed. It completely avoided making a super easy left-hand turn... We have already seen the FSD beta doing that exact same type of turn completely fine. So Tesla can iteratively add value to their money making product using cheap sensors, and have a much lower bar for success. I know this is very close to 100% but I thought it worth taking a guess at what is marketable. Clearly Waymo and others are having immense trouble with that last 0.01% of scenarios where a safety driver has to take over. Car manufacturers have been around for 100 years though so the landscape might be a bit different than early web. Waymo and GM are … Wondering why it took a loop instead of Turning left. They have challenges just like anyone else but they’re solving the 20 year problem not today’s problem. Report: GM and Waymo lead driverless car race; Tesla lags far behind GM’s acquisition of Cruise seems to be paying big dividends. Waymo has been reported to be struggling with parking lots. More posts from the teslamotors community. I disagree for Waymo. Based on the reports of Waymo One passengers, this happens enough to be noticeable. Clearly Waymo and others are having immense trouble with that last 0.01% of scenarios where a safety driver has to take over. Tesla falls in the former category of relying purely on computer vision based on cameras and radar sensors, while Waymo uses mapping on top … If they match that wuality for city driving (despite requiring human supervision), people will absolutely love that too. The conclusion of those in the field is that as soon as a technology is introduced (like Telsa FSD or Cadillac or Nissan) it is INEVITABLE that people will move quickly to a false sense of confidence and not be attentive. FSD may require a communication protocol between vehicles and that communication protocol may require 5G speeds. Interesting to see how Waymo performs relative to other FSD Beta videos! Waymo is constrained by the fact that it is only gathering real-world data via a fleet of about 500 to 600 self-driving Pacifica minivans. Options are worth at most the underlying. FSD needs to work on all streets, not just the easy ones in this small section of Arizona. Tesla is the long play. 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